Works in Progress
- “Should I Stay or Should I Go? An Empirical Analysis of Consumer Behavior Using Airline Web-Traffic Data,” Conditionally accepted at Economics of Transportation
With Alex Marsh, Garrett Scott, and Jon Williams. Ungated version: [link] Abstract
We analyze consumer search and purchase behavior in response to airline revenue-management practices using data from a major carrier’s website and Google Flights. We first describe patterns in search timing, purchase decisions, and paid fares. Then we estimate a multinomial logistic regression to identify factors driving search timing, finding that single adults with loyalty status, especially booking one-way nonstop itineraries, tend to search closer to departure. Next, we use a binary logistic model of conversions of searches to sales, showing that competitors' prices and changing customer composition explain rising conversion probabilities as departure nears. Finally, using a fixed-effects regression, we reveal how search and booking patterns affect prices paid. Late-arriving travelers, particularly single adults with loyalty status, pay substantially more, consistent with the airline’s pricing strategies that segment more inelastic customers. Overall, our findings underscore how revenue-management, competitor fares, and consumer characteristics jointly shape online search and purchase behavior. - “Product Quality and Consolidation”
With Nate Miller, Nick Rupp and Jon Williams
